Antoine Baena personal photo
Antoine Baena
Research Economist
Banque de France

I am an economist in the Macroprudential Policy Division - Financial Stability Directorate at the Banque de France.

Currently, my main focus is to study risks to financial stability arising from the investment funds, banking and corporate sectors.

Paris Dauphine University

I am also a PhD Candidate in Economics with research interests in financial stability. I am particularly interested in topics related to the effectiveness of financial risk regulation and the contagion of corporate risk.

Experience

ACPR

April 2024 - Present

Banking Risk Analysis Department - I conducted various internal stress tests and helped design the future European climate stress test to be conducted by the EBA.

Banque de France

June 2020 - March 2023

Macroprudential Policy Department - I contributed to set up France's first systemic risk buffer (sSyRB) and to the revision of the model used to define the appropriate CCyB level

France Stratégie

February 2018 - April 2020

Think tank of the Prime Minister, Economics Division - I designed and implemented econometric models to analyse public policies about innovation and start-ups.

Education

Paris Dauphine University

2021 - 2024 (expected)

PhD in Economics

Thesis directors: Sylvain Benoit and Serge Darolles.

ENSAE - Polytechnic Institute

2020

Master degree in quantitative economics.

Master thesis in collaboration with Institut Louis Bachelier.

Publications and working papers

Swing pricing and flow dynamics in light of the Covid-19 crisis
Co-authors: Thomas Garcia
2022 - Working paper

Swing pricing is a recent liquidity management tool designed to reallocate the liquidity cost from remaining to transacting investors. We study its impact on French investment funds' financial stability in light of the Covid-19 crisis. We find that swing pricing had only a limited impact on fund stability during the financial turmoil. Our study highlights two new underlying mechanisms that explain this result. First, constraints on the activation and intensity of swing pricing decrease its stabilizing effect. Second, it suffers from a stigma effect: we observe a deterioration of inflows during systemic stress as well as a flight of investors immediately after the implementation. However, we highlight a strong stabilizing effect in the absence of constraints or when the portfolio restructuring cost is high. We thus conclude that while swing pricing has the potential to increase financial stability, its calibration is crucial to ensure that the stabilizing effect offsets the stigma effect.

swing
From Granular Credit Risk to Credit Supply: The Probability of Default Channel
2022 - Working paper

We combine firm level data on balance sheets with Anacredit (Euro Area credit register for non-financial corporations) to investigate how idiosyncratic firm shocks affect bank portfolio credit risk and the aggregate credit supply. We show that the uncertainty bank face when setting single-name probability of default (PD) affects the level of risks of bank portfolios and the aggregate credit supply due to spillovers across firms. This effect is stronger when bank portfolio concentration is high given the presence of granular borrowers and when banks have low capital ratios. Firms with small loan shares in bank portfolios are the most affected by (indirect) credit restrictions. It implies that macroprudential authorities should be proactive in limiting portfolio concentration especially when bank capital ratios are low. Focusing on the Covid crisis, we also show that despite the activation of state-guaranteed loans, this PD channel of transmission was still at work, but with a lower intensity.

amount of PGE in France

Work in progress

  • Cross-border spillovers and indirect effects of capital requirements

Other publications